Wall Street thinks there's a chance the S&P 500 could push 20% higher by 2027

The bull case for S&P hitting 9,000

Following a record-breaking earnings report from Nvidia, analysts Kriti Gupta and Nick Roberts at JPMorgan Private Bank have articulated that a rise of the S&P 500 to 9,000 by mid-2027 is "entirely plausible."

In a note distributed to Fortune shortly before its release, the analysts emphasized that bullish sentiment is primarily driven by the ongoing AI revolution, noting that a sequence of six consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth has not occurred since the global financial crisis (GFC).

"The journey to 9,000 encompasses more than just the tech sector. It hinges on widespread AI adoption across various industries that can enhance productivity and improve margins collectively," they stated, highlighting that the focus within the AI narrative has shifted from infrastructure development to actual implementation.

Challenges remain, including a sell-off in the bond market and uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The normalization of global oil supply could potentially alleviate some of the existing uncertainties faced by regions such as Europe and Japan, which have suffered notably from the recent oil price fluctuations.

Market Overview

S&P 500 futures have observed an uptick of 0.6%.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 has risen by 0.41% in early trading, while the U.K.'s FTSE 100 experienced a notable decline of 0.46% just before the lunch hour.

In Asia, South Korea's KOSPI has surged by a robust 8.42%. Japan's Nikkei 225 is up by 3.14%. Conversely, India's Nifty 50 has remained steady, and China's CSI 300 has dipped by 1.39%.

Brent crude is hovering just below $107 per barrel.

Bitcoin has decreased overnight to a value of $77,171.

Inside SpaceX's IPO ambitions

Recently, we gained insights into SpaceX's S-1 registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, marking the official commencement of what is anticipated to be a historic and highly scrutinized initial public offering (IPO).

One noteworthy point for investors has been the unconventional structure employed by Elon Musk, who controls various companies, including AI venture xAI, and the social media platform X, both merged with SpaceX earlier this year. This merger valued the AI company at $250 billion and the aerospace and space-based internet company at $1 trillion.

The latest filing reveals Musk's conviction that humanity must establish a presence beyond Earth to avoid potential extinction, similar to that of the dinosaurs. Thus, he has constructed a business model aimed at facilitating human colonization of Mars.

Individually, xAI lacked the financial backing to develop the necessary AI infrastructure for such a colony, while SpaceX did not possess any AI capabilities. Now, the combined entity can leverage the revenue from satellite internet provider Starlink, alongside SpaceX’s launch business, to fund the AI development and utilize xAI's technology to govern Mars effectively. The IPO is intended to provide the necessary capital for this initiative.

Making the math work

The Starlink segment appears to be the primary financial driver for SpaceX, contributing over two-thirds of total revenue and generating $1.2 billion in profit during the latest quarter. However, both the space and AI divisions reported losses for the same period.

The prospectus indicates that SpaceX is on a steady growth trajectory, achieving full-year revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025—a 33% increase from $14.1 billion in 2024. Nonetheless, its losses are also escalating as it pursues its ambitious mission to "create the systems and technologies essential for making life multiplanetary, to decipher the universe's true nature, and to spread consciousness across the cosmos," an endeavor that undoubtedly incurs significant costs.

As of March 31, SpaceX has accumulated a deficit of $41.3 billion, reporting a net loss of $4.27 billion in Q1 of this year, a substantial increase from the $528 million loss recorded in the same quarter last year.

When weather becomes a balance-sheet problem

Recent research by the JPMorgan Chase Institute delves into the financial implications of escalating climate risks and highlights that, for low-income Americans, federal disaster relief is not merely a safety net, but rather an essential lifeline.

The study reveals that low-income households are not only less equipped to handle unexpected expenses arising from weather-related disasters, but they are also significantly more susceptible to income disruptions due to their reliance on hourly wages instead of salaried positions. Even families with adequate access to credit may struggle to meet their debt obligations without a consistent income, according to the report.

Should financial aid for such disasters be managed at the state level, it is suggested that assistance would be most effective if targeted at low- and middle-income households. However, this approach poses a challenge: "This could impede the speed at which funds are delivered to households. Given the critical nature of timely assistance for low-income families, assessing applicants' eligibility before distributing payments may not be feasible."

New normal for immigration

According to Oxford Economics, a baseline estimate of 160,000 net immigration to the U.S. has been established. Lead U.S. economist Bernard Yaros explained in a note that limitations placed on H-1B visas and green cards for specific foreign nationals have led to downward revisions in previous immigration forecasts.

Yaros noted that while there appears to be a slight easing of policies concerning legal immigration, it is insufficient to adjust the forecast upward, indicating that there will be no growth in the labor force over the next two years and a break-even employment level close to zero.

Yaros added that, although the exact economic impact remains challenging to quantify, the interplay of policy changes and the influence of AI could significantly affect future economic growth, which will increasingly depend on productivity trends as labor's role diminishes compared to previous decades.

Early retirement surge

A recent survey conducted by Allianz Life reveals that over 40% of Americans are retiring earlier than they originally planned, often for reasons outside their control.

The 2026 Annual Retirement Study from the Allianz Center for the Future of Retirement identified health-related issues as the most common reason for forced retirements, cited by 30% of respondents who found themselves unable to fulfill their job responsibilities. This was closely followed by unexpected job losses, mentioned by 21%.

These findings substantiate the concerns of many individuals approaching retirement, with 59% expressing fears that they will not be able to leave the workforce on their own terms.