The Houthis maintained a period of restraint for the initial four weeks of the ongoing conflict, despite their connections to Iran. However, the group, which still controls the Yemeni capital of Sanaa and various other territories, has recently taken action by launching missiles toward Israel.
The Houthis assert that their targets were "sensitive Israeli military sites." While it is true that their missile threats to Israel are not as consequential as those posed by Iran, the Houthis have engaged in multiple missile attacks against Israel in solidarity with Hamas since the escalation of conflict following the Hamas-led strikes against Israel on October 7, 2023. Nonetheless, these attacks have not inflicted significant damage on Israel.
The greater threat emanating from the Houthis is observed along the coast of Yemen. In alignment with their support for Hamas, they have begun to target shipping activities in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a vital commercial maritime passage situated at the southern end of the Red Sea, between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. An uptick in their activities could critically undermine global economic stability.
Compounding this concern is the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, meaning that two significant strategic waterways for international trade and energy supplies may be threatened. Furthermore, the Houthis could extend their aggression towards energy and military infrastructure in neighboring Gulf nations, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, mirroring their past actions.
Historically, when the Houthis have engaged in similar tactics, they have faced extensive airstrikes from the United States and Israel, aimed at dismantling their leadership and military resources. Yet, the Houthis appear to have endured this pressure effectively. The pivotal question that arises is: how far is the group prepared to escalate their actions? While their earlier missile strikes in support of Hamas garnered both domestic and regional backing, strikes directed towards Iran might provoke a different reaction.
Moreover, the context in Yemen has remained relatively stable after years of chaos and conflict. Increased military engagement by the Houthis in the larger clash involving the US, Israel, and Iran has the potential to reignite internal strife within Yemen.
Should the Houthis persist in and intensify their offensive actions, it would signal a new phase of escalation, leading to a broader conflict in the region.
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