Rubio says 'solid' Iran deal may come on Monday

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has indicated that US and Iranian negotiators have developed "a pretty solid thing on the table," suggesting a potential deal to conclude the hostilities between the two nations may be reached as soon as Monday.

"We're still a work in progress," Rubio stated during his visit to India.

His remarks followed President Donald Trump's guidance to negotiators to avoid rushing toward a resolution, despite earlier indications of an impending agreement.

Reports suggest that the proposed deal includes a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a framework for ongoing discussions regarding Iran's nuclear programme.

In response to these negotiations, oil prices experienced a significant decline, while Asian stock markets saw upward movement on Monday amid increasing optimism for a resolution.

Rubio elaborated, "As I said, you know, we thought we might have some news last night. Maybe today," during a press conference in Delhi. He commented on the situation concerning the Strait of Hormuz, noting that "I think we have a pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the Straits," highlighting the strategic importance of this waterway, which facilitates the passage of 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, previously obstructed by Iran.

While expressing cautious optimism, Rubio advised that "I wouldn't read too much into it," emphasizing the need for patience as communication with Iran may take time.

CBS News, in collaboration with the BBC, has reported that US intelligence suggests Iran's supreme leader, reportedly injured during an Israeli strike on the conflict's first day, is in an undisclosed location, complicating communication with his representatives and consequently prolonging the negotiation process with the United States.

In recent remarks, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated that both parties are "very close and very far" from formalizing an agreement.

According to US media sources, the envisioned deal does not provide a comprehensive resolution but rather defers some of the most contentious topics for future negotiations, including the conditions and timing of sanctions relief for Iran, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and Washington's demands for Iran to limit its nuclear activities.

Republican Opposition

The potential agreement has drawn a divide among Trump’s Republican supporters, with some expressing that it is excessively lenient toward Iran.

Senator Ted Cruz described the deal as "a disastrous mistake," while Roger Wicker, the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, argued that a 60-day ceasefire would undermine the accomplishments achieved through Operation Epic Fury.

Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch Trump ally, also expressed disapproval of any arrangement that would allow Iran to be perceived as a dominating force in the region. He questioned, "It makes one wonder why the war started to begin with."

In response to dissenting opinions, Trump articulated that he does not heed "the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about," affirming that, if a deal with Iran were to materialize, it would be "a good and proper one," as stated on Truth Social.

Background to the Conflict

The armed conflict escalated after the US and Israel conducted extensive airstrikes on Iran on February 28, igniting a widespread regional conflict. Iran retaliated by targeting Israel and US-aligned nations in the Gulf and effectively obstructed access to the Strait of Hormuz, which resulted in a spike in global oil prices.

Following the establishment of a ceasefire in early April, the US initiated a blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump has asserted that this blockade will remain "in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed."

In a post on Truth Social, Trump reiterated that Iran "must understand" it cannot pursue nuclear weapon capabilities. Tehran has consistently maintained that its nuclear programme is intended solely for peaceful purposes.

Nuclear Programme

Emerging reports from US media indicate that the prospective deal may involve Iran agreeing to eventually relinquish its highly enriched uranium stockpile.

At the onset of the conflict, Iran possessed approximately 440 kg (970 lbs) of uranium enriched to 60% purity—a quantity just one step away from achieving weapons-grade enrichment at 90%, potentially enabling the production of a nuclear weapon.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian assured state television that the nation is prepared "to assure the world that we are not after a nuclear weapon."