NPR
President Trump and various administration officials are managing expectations concerning an imminent peace agreement aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict with Iran, highlighting that significant divisions remain on critical matters.
After announcing on Saturday that the U.S. and Iran had essentially "largely negotiated" a memorandum of understanding to facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump clarified on Sunday through several social media posts that the U.S. would proceed cautiously in any forthcoming agreement.
"If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one," Trump conveyed in his Sunday posts. "So don't listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about."
While addressing remarks in New Delhi, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized on Monday that the United States is committed to giving diplomacy "every chance to succeed before we explore the alternatives."
Iran has yet to provide an official statement regarding the proposed agreement. However, reports from semi-official news agencies, which are often utilized to communicate the perspectives of Iranian leadership, suggest that disagreements over "one or two" key issues could jeopardize the potential deal.
The Tasnim news agency, connected to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, accused the U.S. on Monday of "obstructionism" particularly concerning the release of certain frozen Iranian funds in return for easing restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Additionally, the report indicated that the terms under negotiation stipulate Iran would need to restore shipping traffic through the critical waterway to pre-war levels within 30 days, while the U.S. is expected to entirely lift its blockade in the same timeframe. Another state-affiliated agency, ISNA, reported that Iran is adamant about jointly managing the strait with Oman, as both nations share this narrow maritime corridor, governed by international maritime law as established by the U.N.
The U.S. and Israel initiated military action against Iran on February 28, sparking a regional conflict that extended to U.S. partners in the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In retaliation, Iran targeted U.S. military bases and energy infrastructure in those countries. A ceasefire was subsequently reached in April, although the toll of casualties reportedly includes several thousand Iranians due to U.S. and Israeli strikes.
Originally, Trump focused on the prospect of regime change in Iran and concerns regarding the nation’s nuclear ambitions. However, current discussions have shifted to prioritizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
In light of Iran's restrictions on access to this vital waterway, global oil prices have surged. Disruptions to shipping within the strait have affected the availability and pricing of a vast array of products, ranging from fertilizers to consumer plastics.
During his official visit to India, Rubio described the ongoing negotiations with Iran as presenting "a pretty solid thing on the table concerning their ability to open up the strait." He further remarked on the U.S.'s intention to engage in "a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter," expressing hope for a successful resolution.
Iran's state-backed news agency ISNA reported a senior Iranian diplomat asserting that Iran has not committed to any stipulations in the negotiations concerning the initial agreement on nuclear issues, including those pertaining to highly enriched uranium.
The U.S. has urged Iran to export highly enriched uranium for safekeeping; however, Iran, which maintains that its nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes, views this as a matter of national sovereignty and has opposed this option.
A senior foreign ministry official, Hossein Nooshabadi, reiterated Iran’s demands, which include "closing the war on all fronts including Lebanon, the release of billions of dollars' worth of Iran's frozen assets, lifting the U.S. naval blockade, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, withdrawing U.S. forces from the vicinity of the Islamic Republic, and reinstating Iran's capacity to sell oil," all of which are integral to the potential agreement with the United States.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, articulated on Sunday that, should an agreement be formalized, discussions on nuclear issues would occur within a 60-day window, commencing following the 30-day preliminary agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz.
Baghaei clarified that, at this stage, the focus is not on nuclear specifics, underscoring that the 14-point memorandum of understanding prioritizes ending the conflict.
Nooshabadi indicated that the forthcoming 60-day talks hinge upon the lifting of sanctions and the full release of frozen Iranian assets by the U.S.
Trump stated on Saturday that the U.S. would maintain its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until a formal agreement with Iran is "reached, certified, and signed."
Iran's parliament spokesman, Ebrahim Rezaei, communicated via social media that Iran will resist any form of coercion, asserting that if the U.S. seeks an agreement, it must engage in negotiations; if it desires even higher gasoline prices, it should "continue bluffing."
Israel, which significantly influences Trump's Iran policy, is firmly against any agreement that would halt operations in Lebanon.
Despite a recent U.S.-facilitated extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, Israel has persisted in its occupation of southern Lebanon and continued its airstrike campaigns. The Lebanese health ministry has reported over 3,200 fatalities, including women, children, healthcare professionals, and first responders, resulting from Israeli actions since the onset of hostilities with the Iran-aligned group Hezbollah in March.
According to Israeli sources, 22 soldiers, a military contractor, and two civilians have been killed during Hezbollah's assaults.
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