Why Michigan is emerging as one of America's worst-hit climate states

The state saw 33 tornadoes last year and severe flooding, with researchers asserting that the connections to climate change are evident.

On the morning of April 15, at 1:45 AM, a tornado struck west Ann Arbor, moving through Veterans Memorial Park. The storm uprooted mature oak trees and damaged baseball field fences before impacting a nearby ice rink.

Scott Spooner, a manager at Ann Arbor Parks and Recreation, explained, “It came up through the parking lot, and in that time, the pressure differential between the tornado and the air inside the rink collapsed the wall.” He noted that the rink was utilized by roughly 60,000 people last year across various leagues. "We don't know what the timeline for reopening is but we are not going to be opening in September. At this point, it's hard for me to foresee opening next winter at all."

This tornado was not an isolated event in Michigan for the year. In March, two separate waves of tornadoes affected communities across nine counties, resulting in four fatalities, including that of a 12-year-old boy. This incident marked the earliest occurrence of an EF-3 tornado in the state's recorded history.

Typically, the state averages 15 tornadoes per year; however, last year recorded 33, and the current year has already seen 15 tornadoes.

These tornado outbreaks coincided with some of the most severe flooding Michigan has faced in decades. In the preceding month, multiple dams and levees in Michigan were at risk of failure, prompting an evacuation order in Cheboygan located in the northern part of the state.

While regions such as Florida, California, and the mountain west are frequently cited as being among the most adversely affected by climate change, recent developments indicate that parts of the Great Lakes—once considered to be "climate proof"—are also facing significant challenges.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) officials are actively assessing the aftermath of the tornadoes and flooding across 30 Michigan counties.

Concerns are growing that the flooding could hinder outdoor recreational activities this spring, which is a critical economic driver for numerous local businesses, as campgrounds, trails, equestrian facilities, and other amenities across 22 counties undertake extensive and costly cleanup measures.

The current year's tornadoes and flooding reflect a broader trend in Michigan, where the economic ramifications of severe weather events from previous years continue to weigh heavily on residents.

This month marks six years since the failure of the Edenville and Sanford dams, privately owned earthen hydroelectric structures located 100 miles northeast of Grand Rapids. These collapses were triggered by about 8 inches of rainfall, resulting in the evacuation of 10,000 individuals and the damage or destruction of 2,500 homes and businesses, amounting to an estimated cost of $175 million.

Lynn Coleman, who captured alarming footage of the Edenville dam's collapse, recalled, “We were in the process of getting boats and watercraft drug up to safety; the water was five to six feet higher than it had ever been. The water trickled out the backside of the dike. It took an hour and 42 minutes for the lake to completely drain.”

Coleman operates the Wixom Waters campground, situated near the Edenville dam, and has encountered financial difficulties as a result. “We run a campground that's based on water activities… the business has lost an average of $35,000 a year. Now, with the rebuild of the dam, we're faced with just under $30,000 a year in lake assessment fees, which will continue for the next 40 years.” The total cost for rebuilding the Edenville dam and three other dams that failed during the flooding is projected to be nearly $400 million.

Residents have recently confronted the dismissal of a lawsuit they filed against the state of Michigan, alleging that the state failed to respond appropriately to repeated safety warnings regarding the dam's risks after allowing its owner, Boyce Hydro Power, to raise water levels.

Experts attribute Michigan's increasing vulnerability to extreme weather to several factors. They observe that spring frequently places the state at the intersection of the jet stream, where warm, humid air from the south meets cold, dry air from Canada. This spring has exhibited heightened activity in this regard.

“When warm, moist air collides with dry air, it creates a sharp temperature boundary that can result in severe weather. And that’s what we’ve been experiencing,” explains Lisa DeChano-Cook, a professor at Western Michigan University's School of Environment, Geography, and Sustainability. “Additionally, we have a strong temperature contrast between the Great Lakes and Gulf moisture. This can lead to increased precipitation and heightened extreme weather events, as was evident in the case of the Edenville dam.”

Last year, an ice storm resulted in the loss of millions of trees across northern Michigan's lower peninsula, crippling hundreds of miles of electrical and utility infrastructure and leaving thousands without power for extended periods. The financial impact of such events—amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars—has resulted in ongoing political turmoil for officials and utility customers, with ripple effects that, like Edenville residents, will endure for years.

Nevertheless, not all individuals are entirely convinced that climate change is the sole contributor to these extreme weather events. Lynn Coleman reflected, “It’s very possible that climate change played a role. Events seem to be getting worse, though I’m not certain they are. There have been severe weather incidents across the state for as long as I can remember. I do believe we need to address issues related to climate change. However, I can’t definitively attribute all of it to that, as I’m not a scientist."

Conversely, researchers assert that the connections are unmistakable. The National Centers for Environmental Information, a governmental entity, reports that the frequency of billion-dollar disaster events in the United States, adjusted for inflation, rose from 33 in the 1980s to 198 in the decade leading to 2024.

“It’s not necessarily a new phenomenon; however, I believe it is linked to climate change,” DeChano-Cook stated regarding the severe weather the state is encountering. “We are witnessing increased waviness in the jet stream during both spring and fall more than we did previously.”

Warmer temperatures in the Arctic have a tendency to weaken the polar jet stream, which can result in greater north-south bending. This dynamic may lead to more extreme weather patterns across the Great Lakes and southern Canada.

In Ann Arbor, local authorities are preparing for the upcoming summer season while also addressing the implications of the tornado damage.

With a public swimming pool adjacent to the damaged Veterans Memorial ice rink, city officials have opted to delay construction work on the rink to facilitate the pool's timely opening.

“We don’t want to have a construction site next to the pool,” Spooner remarked.

As a result of the damage, access to city-owned ice rinks will be reduced by half for the upcoming season, as the rink in question is one of only two in the area.

While Spooner could not provide a financial estimate for the impact of the closure, he noted it extends beyond just monetary losses. "There's a revenue hit," he stated, "and a social hit."