Your 'Flexible Hot Girl Summer' Is Going to Cost You

Megan Thee Stallion transcends her roles as a rapper, Broadway star, and multi-brand entrepreneur to become a keen observer of economic trends.

Since 2019, the term "hot girl summer" has gained widespread popularity, a phrase that became a sensation even before Megan released the song that popularized it. This anthem encapsulated a carefree attitude, embodying the spirit of living freely and without concern for judgment by others. Social media users often tagged their summer adventures with the phrase "hot girl summer," reminiscent of an earlier era when the concept of "summering" was commonplace.

Fast forward seven years, through a pandemic and an enduring cost-of-living crisis, and many are questioning whether "hot girl summer" is a thing of the past. The jet fuel crisis, largely a result of ongoing tensions in Iran, suggests that those with a penchant for spontaneous, last-minute travel may feel the financial ramifications the most. "It's still on. Just keep it flexible," advised Hayley Berg, lead economist at Hopper Technology Solutions (HTS), in comments to Fortune. "Flexible hot girl summer."

Berg, who monitors flight ticket prices for HTS—a company dedicated to providing travelers with stress-free booking experiences—observed a significant increase in airfares attributed to the impact of the Iran conflict on global jet fuel supply. Notably, domestic airfares for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend are reported to be over 50% higher compared to the same period last year, as per HTS data. This surge is primarily driven by a persistent disruption in the global jet fuel supply linked to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

"Prices consistently spike at the last minute for a weekend getaway," Berg stated. "However, the current price increases are over $100 higher than last year's last-minute rates."

A Sustained Shock

Jet fuel generally constitutes 15% to 30% of an airline's operational costs in the United States. Typically, short-term supply disruptions—such as a refinery incident or a brief geopolitical conflict—do not noticeably impact consumers, as airlines tend to absorb these costs. However, this year presents a different scenario.

"My assessment of potential fuel impacts depends on whether the disruption is a shock or significant and sustained," Berg explained. "This situation is defined as significant and sustained. Initially slow-moving, it has intensified as the conflict has progressed."

Fuel prices have reportedly surged by 50% to 100%, a hike that is now being reflected in ticket prices. Airlines have attempted to postpone passing on these costs, given it is peak booking season, and they are reluctant to deter customers who are already managing rising expenses.

"Airlines bear what they can internally, transferring costs they cannot absorb to ticket prices," Berg noted. "There has been an initial reluctance to raise prices given existing consumer pressures. However, the current costs are insurmountable and will inevitably be passed along."

How Fares Really Work

For those concerned that airlines are arbitrarily increasing prices following a flight search, Berg clarifies that this perception is misleading. Understanding the operational mechanics clarifies why the impact of fuel price changes may take some time to manifest in ticket prices.

"A common misconception is that airlines manipulate prices based on cookies tracking your searches, adjusting fares just minutes after an inquiry," she explained. "In reality, airlines operate on a fixed fare filing schedule, typically once or twice daily. In the U.S., airlines can file adjustments approximately every four hours. Consequently, if there is a sudden spike in jet fuel costs, airlines will not alter prices immediately. They must adhere to their internal filings, after which fares are updated for booking."

This inherent delay provides airlines with a buffer against short-term fluctuations. However, when fuel costs face a sustained increase, those changes will eventually be reflected in fares.

Last-Minute Travelers Will Get Hit Hardest

Flights scheduled to depart soon are reflecting the full effects of the rising fuel costs. Conversely, flights scheduled for later dates, for instance, from late August to early September, carry a degree of uncertainty regarding fuel prices by that time, which allows airlines to maintain more moderate pricing for now.

"We have noticed significant impacts on short-term flights," Berg observed. "The effects are less pronounced for flights scheduled further out, as it remains uncertain whether fuel will be cheaper by the time those flights occur. End-of-summer and early fall pricing should be less impacted."

This may provide cold comfort for those seeking last-minute Memorial Day flights. Nevertheless, this scenario offers a tactical advantage for travelers willing to exhibit flexibility in their travel plans.

Berg recommends that summer travelers adopt the same strategies she would advise in any year. She suggests avoiding peak travel periods; specifically, the last two weeks of June and the first two weeks of July represent the highest cost peaks of the summer. If possible, consider delaying travel to the last two weeks of August or early September for potentially lower fares.

Berg also suggests considering midweek flights. If planning a week-long trip, she advises booking from Wednesday to Wednesday rather than Saturday to Saturday. Furthermore, exploring multiple airports can yield better pricing options. If you are near two airports, evaluate departures and arrivals from both. More choices can create competitive pricing, particularly from low-cost airlines. For travelers heading to Europe, she recommends breaking from the norm of directly flying to the final destination, opting instead to fly into the most affordable EU city and then utilize budget carriers to reach primary cities like Paris, London, or Rome at a lower overall cost.

Ultimately, she emphasizes the importance of booking with flexibility. If a refundable fare is available, it is worth pursuing. If not—and a Cancel for Any Reason option is offered at checkout—Berg suggests considering the additional cost. Given the volatile nature of prices this summer, travelers may need to adjust their budgets on short notice.

"If the total cost of your vacation becomes untenable due to escalating prices, or if the summer unfolds with notable surprises, you must allow yourself the flexibility to adapt your travel plans," Berg concluded.

People Are Still Going

Despite the notable rise in fares exceeding 50%, Americans are not opting to stay home. HTS data indicates that scheduled capacity for Memorial Day weekend remains virtually unchanged from the previous year, with an increase of only 53 basis points—a negligible rise.

Berg emphasized that travel continues to be the one area of discretionary spending where consumers have consistently expressed a willingness to maintain or increase their budgets instead of cutting back, even as they have reduced spending across other categories.

"This indicates to me that there is no significant decline in Memorial Day weekend travel plans," Berg noted. "People are still traveling. They may simply be looking to economize elsewhere to accommodate their travel budgets." Accordingly, it appears you can still enjoy your hot girl summer; flexibility is key.